Did Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Steal the 2009 Iran Election?

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Sources

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InsideIran.org, “Q&A: Seyed Mohammad Marandi: Green Movement Defeated,” InsideIran.org, athttp://www.insideiran.org/news/qa-seyed-mohammad-marandi-green-movement-defeated/(February 15, 2010).

Interior Ministry of Iran (the “Interior Ministry Report”). A comma-delimited file is available athttp://thomaslotze.com/iran/Mebane_Lotze_Iran_2009_polling.csv, or find this and other data files in Excel spreadsheet format at link labeled “iranian_election.zip” on website page available athttp://thomaslotze.com/iran/index.php#Benford. Interior Ministry spreadsheets include a “Total” column for each ballot box that, in some cases, varies slightly from the sum of the four candidates’ votes plus invalid ballots. For this reason, vote totals shown in this article reflect a calculation of each ballot-box total: the sum of the four candidates’ votes plus the invalid ballots. Difference between overall vote total stated in Interior Ministry Report and overall calculated vote total was not significant. Total votes in Interior Ministry Report varied slightly (.07%) from total votes reported by Interior Ministry on day after election (see, Ansari, Chatham House Preliminary Report (http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/14234_iranelection0609.pdf), though in the case of Mohsen Rezai, the difference arguably was significant (albeit inconsequential, since Rezai received less than 2% of the vote): Ahmadinejad’s vote total decreased by .02% in final Interior Ministry Report; Mousavi’s total increased by .32%; Rezai’s total decreased by 3.3%; Karroubi’s total decreased by 1.0%; number of invalid ballots increased by 2.8%. Later Interior Ministry Report reflected June 20 recount of 10% of ballot boxes. Unless otherwise stated, all vote-count data cited in this article are based on Interior Ministry Report data, with calculated ballot-box totals as explained above.

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Taherkenareh, Abedin, “Can Iran’s Minorities Help Oust Ahmadinejad?” Time.com, athttp://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1901667,00.html (May 30, 2009).

Talev, Margaret, “Iran Election Makes Obama’s Outreach Efforts Harder,” McClatchy.com, athttp://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/70020.html (June 13, 2009).

ThaiIndian News, “Hawaii-Based Academic Questions Legitimacy of Ahmadinejad Win,” ThaiIndian News, at http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/world-news/hawaii-based-academic-questions-legitimacy-of-ahmadinejads-win_100206030.html (June 17, 1009).

Warrick, Joby and Miller, Greg, “Iranian technocrats, disillusioned with government, offer wealth of intelligence to U.S.,” Washington Post, at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/24/AR2010042402710.html (April 25, 2010).

Weisbrot, Mark, “Was Iran’s Election Stolen?”, PostGlobal (Washingpost.com), athttp://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/needtoknow/2009/06/was_irans_election_stolen.html (June 26, 2009).

WorldPublicOpinion.org, “Analysis of Multiple Polls Finds Little Evidence Iranian Public Sees Government as Illegitimate,” athttp://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brmiddleeastnafricara/652.php?nid=&id=&pnt=652&lb= (February 3, 2010). See also September 19, 2009 report, cited herein.

WorldPublicOpinion.Org, “Iranians Favor Diplomatic Relations With US But Have Little Trust in Obama,” WorldPublicOpinion.Org, athttp://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/brmiddleeastnafricara/639.php?nid=&id=&pnt=639&lb (September 19, 2009). Another presentation of the opinion-poll results appears at http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/sep09/IranUS_Sep09_quaire.pdf. See also February 3, 2010 report, cited herein.

Worth, Robert F. and Fathi, Nazila, “Police Are Said to Have Killed 10 in Iran Protests,” New York Times, at http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/28/world/middleeast/28iran.html?scp=1&sq=iran%20ashura%20nazila&st=cse (December 27, 2009).

Worth, Robert F., and Fathi, Nazila, “Protests Flare in Tehran as Opposition Disputes Vote,” New York Times, at http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/world/middleeast/14iran.html (June 13, 2009).

YouTube, “Iranian Protesters Burning Police Motor Bikes,” at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVNPZBTLE8g&feature=PlayList&p=7D7B0C3D5701D087&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=24 (June 17, 2009).

YouTube, video recording of Ahmadinejad/Mousavi debate, with voice-over English translation, athttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DNmR15Lui8&feature=related) (June 3, 2009).

 

*Eric A. Brill is an attorney lives in San Francisco.

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3 Responses to “Did Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Steal the 2009 Iran Election?”

  1. SSKKK

    Apr 25. 2013

    The bigger and more important issue is the regimes brutal and shameful crackdown on peaceful protests… including the rape, improper prisoning and torture of innocent people.

    The fear it instilled in the people. The way it insulted them. The blood it spilled.

    Even if we were to take the official results, it still shows that millions of people supported the reformist candidate, but where is their representation? it is non-existant. for 10s of millions of iranians (be it 70+% or the supposed 30%) there is ZERO representation in the political process.

    4 years later, the two candidates are rotting away under house arrest with no charges or trial.

    Reply to this comment

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