Iran’s Election: Poll Results Suggest a 50% turnout and A Run Off Voting

File photo shows people casting their votes in Iran’s 10th presidential election, June 2009.

File photo shows people casting their votes in Iran’s 10th presidential election, June 2009.

An analysis based on the results of three surveys conducted by three reliable Iranian polling centers shows that none of Iran’s presidential candidates would gain enough votes to win outright on the first ballot.

More than 50 million Iranians will head to the polls on June 14th to determine Iran’s next president. Iran’s Guardian Council has approved eight candidates to compete in the poll. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote a runoff is scheduled to be held a week later.

According to the Analysis seen by Iran’sView, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, mayor of Tehran and a Principalist candidate, would win almost 27% of the votes and would be one of two competitors in any run off and the second competitor would be either Saeed Jalili, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator or Ali Akbar Velayati a top advisor to the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei.

11.7% of voters surveyed decided to vote in favor of Saeed Jalili and 11.3% for Ali Akbar Velayati, both Principalist candidates.

A similar survey conducted in the 2009 presidential elections gave accurate results.

This poll was carried out in late April on more than 400,000 people in 31 provinces throughout Iran.

More than 51% of eligible voters have decided to participate in the presidential elections. One out of five voters surveyed said they chose not to participate in the elections.

More than 56% of voters said they will vote for one of the four Principalist candidates.

Beside, Ghalibaf, Jalili and Velayati,  Gholam Ali Hadad-Adel, another Principalist candidate would gain 6.7%, Mohsen Rezaei and  Mohammad Gharazi two independent candidates would have respectively 6.7% and 0.7% of the ballots.

Of Iran’s two candidates in the Reformists camp 5.6% of voters surveyed said they would vote for Mohammad Reza Aref and 3.1% would vote for Hassan Rowhani.

 Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former two-term president of Iran was the most popular candidate associated with the reformists but he was disqualified by Iran’s Guardian Council due to his old age and therefore his inability to take the responsibility of being president.

The results of the surveys have not been publicized so far, but Iran’sView received an analysis paper based on the three reliable surveys.

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